Barack Obama talked about math. And he was right to talk about it, because when all is said and done, it appears none of the two candidates is going to obtain the democratic ticket without a final fight for the 800 or so superdelegates in August.
The math has been simplified. ABC News’ delegate count has Obama with 1,566 (a 109 lead despite Mrs. Clinton’s Tuesday win) and Clinton with 1,457. And with 12 contests to go, the democrats are left with 611 more pledged delegates to grab in, Wyoming, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico.
Now, if a candidate wants to avoid the superdelegate contest in August, he or she needs 2,025 to claim the democratic party’s nomination, but neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama can reach the required number without the votes from the superdelegates.
getting the math right
The math from ABC’s Political Unit’s delegate calculator further predicts that to secure the nomination before the convention, Obama would need to win 75 percent of the remaining pledged delegates and Clinton would need to win 93 percent of them, a tough job indeed if not outrightly impossible.
This means that it all comes down to the superdelegate vote to be decided at the Democratic convention. A possible Democratic convention that officials want to avoid due to the worry that there could be a general discontent if the candidate with fewer elected delegates gets chosen. The 1968 Chicago convention, it seems, has a role to play in this worry.
preventing the super vote
This superdelegate race could just be prevented. That is, if the two candidates recompete for Florida and Michigan — the two states had their primaries results cancelled due to non adherence to party rules – with a combined number of 366 delegates.
But should the unwanted superdelegate vote take place, the general question will be; how are the candidates faring on the grounds of superdelegates? Have any superdelegates pledged their support for any of the two?
To begin with, there are about 800 superdelegates recorded by the democrats. Clinton so far has a lead over Obama in the superdelegate count. In conclusion, the remaining questions cannot be answered, simply because they are not forced to support the leading candidate at the convention and also even if some superdelegates favour one candidate now, they reserve the right to change their minds in the end.
1968 revisited or just
If this whole affair comes down to a reminder of the 1968 Chicago convention, isn’t it high time we took a closer look at what happened ? And maybe, just maybe, hope that the two would agree to run together… The torchbearer position, though, might be another bone of contention.