The Clinton camp has been putting both popular and political pressure on the democratic party to reverse a decision not to accept results from Florida and Michigan who disregarded party rules and held their primaries earlier than they were supposed to, a first ever in the history of their primaries.
Major Democratic candidates vowed against campaigning in those states before their primaries, that is, before February 5. The conspicuously undemocratic contest did not even have Obama’s name on the ballot in Michigan, prompting Howard Dean, National Democratic Chairman, to refuse to seat the two states’ delegates at the democratic convention. He further said it was up to the two states to come up with an acceptable solution, one that does not involve the earlier votes.
The outcome of fresh elections
Confirming the party’s position while in a private meeting,Thursday, with Mr. Ickes and Maggie Williams, Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Ms. Pelosi said that the Florida-Michigan issue was concerned party rules and expressed hopes that a solution could be found before the party’s convention. “We haven’t ruled out rerunning these contests,” said Harold Ickes, a top adviser to Mrs. Clinton and her chief delegate hunter. He also suggested an agreement whereby each party accepts an offer.
Should the results from the two illegal primaries be accepted awarding Obama delegates in the “uncommitted” category on the Michigan ballot, Clinton would gain 64 delegates giving her 2,209 to secure her nomination if the full Florida and Michigan delegations were seated, according to calculations by her campaign.
If, however, new fair and legal elections are held, the likelihood of an outright nomination is uncertain for either candidate.
The better placed to win
Recent polls show that to win the national primaries Barack needs 75 per cent of the votes while Hillary needs 93 per cent. Her base among the superdelegates though it seems is much stronger than his. Other polls show that Obama is more likely to beat McCain in the general elections.
In fact, 16 per cent of the republican electorate could favour Obama against 9 per cent for Clinton. While in the general presidential elections, Obama stands at 52 against 40 per cent for McCain. Clinton would fare less better against McCain, that is, 50 againt 44 per cent. An overall 30 to 33 per cent of all republicans would rather vote Obama or Clinton than McCain.
In general terms poll statistics have shown advantage Obama has over his contender Clinton and McCain an eventual contender, if we are to have faith in the polls.
It’s a superdelegate call
There is one catch though. Only if Obama could get the same advantage among the superdelegates. Plegded superdelegates have so far favoured Clinton, which means that should Clinton’s candidacy hold until the democratic convention where only superdelegates are expected to vote, she logically stands a chance of winning no matter how small the margin.
The supedelegates who voted for Mrs. Clinton may also change their minds and vote for the better contender agianst McCain.