Three scenarios have been developed based on slightly different assumptions. The major assumption is that Tsvangirai still has major support in urban areas, whilst Mugabe still has strong support in the three Mashonaland rural provinces. It is assumed that Makoni will have the support of his home province, as well as of the three Matabeleland Provinces.
figures provided by our correspondent in Harare
The figures are based on the 2002 Census. It is assumed that the Census provides an accurate ratio of the population by province, and that the percentage of voters will be close to the population ratios.
Scenarios_for_2008_Presidential_Elections_1_.doc
However, the national polling register is rigged with errors that is said to favour the 84 year old Robert Mugabe. A detailed list has shown the names of people long deceased.
A brief computer analysis based on the scanned voters’ roll
reveals massive discrepancies between what ZEC has declared as the
number of voters per constituency and those actually on the voters
roll.
There are massive variations of up to 30,8 per cent in some
constituencies such as Goromonzi South, Bulawayo Central, Gokwe
Nembudziya and Chikomba East.
Goromonzi South has a total of 19 422 on the voter’s roll which is 30.8 less than the 28 086 voters registered by ZEC.
Below is the margin of error provided by the Zimbabwean Electoral commission and analysed by opposition campaigns.
ZIMBABWE Electoral Voters List Margin of Error
| N° | Constituency | Voters registered by ZEC | N° of Voters on Roll | % Error |
| 1. | Goromonzi South | 28086 | 19422 | -30.8% |
| 2. | Gokwe-Nembudziya | 27261 | 19519 | -28.4% |
| 3. | Chikomba East | 22597 | 15701 | -30.5% |
| 4. | Bulawayo Central | 27646 | 20760 | -24.9% |
| 5. | Bulilima West | 31305 | 29431 | -15.8% |
| 6. | Chegutu East | 31226 | 25059 | -19.7% |
| 7. | Bubi | 31706 | 26365 | -16.8% |
| 8. | Gokwe | 22669 | 19275 | -15.0% |
| 9. | Chipinge East | 24491 | 21756 | -11.2% |
| 10. | Chikomba central | 26520 | 24203 | -8.7% |
| 11. | Chiredzi East | 26344 | 24127 | -8.4% |
| 12. | Guruve South | 31711 | 29556 | -6.8% |
| 13. | Chivi South | 31909 | 29760 | -6.7% |
| 14. | Bindura North | 30867 | 29165 | -5.5% |
| 15. | Glen Nora | 22399 | 26862 | 19.9% |
| 16. | Buhera West | 29427 | 34411 | 16.9% |
| 17. | Gokwe-Sengwa | 24809 | 28462 | 14.7% |
| 18. | Binga South | 26295 | 29686 | 12.9% |
| 19. | Bulilima East | 31625 | 35218 | 11.4% |
| 20. | Bikita East | 28509 | 31309 | 9.8% |
| 21. | Gokwe Sasame | 31905 | 35034 | 9.8% |
| 22. | Chakari | 21639 | 23585 | 9.0% |
| 23. | Glen View South | 27689 | 29943 | 8.1% |
| 24. | Gokwe Mapfungautsi | 29947 | 32383 | 8.1% |
| 25. | Gokwe Chireya | 27261 | 29321 | 7.6% |
| 26. | Chikomba West | 30297 | 32133 | 6.1% |
| 27. | Chivi Central | 29691 | 31146 | 4.9% |
